You are here

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CHANGED CLIMATES ON HEAVY RAINFALL FREQUENCIES IN THE MIDWEST

TitlePOTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CHANGED CLIMATES ON HEAVY RAINFALL FREQUENCIES IN THE MIDWEST
Publication TypeManual Entry
Year of Publication1991
AuthorsChangnon, S. A., and F. A. Huff
WATER RESOURCES BULLETIN
Volume27
Pagination753-759
Date PublishedSEP-OCT
Type of ArticleArticle
ISSN0043-1370
CLIMATE CHANGE, DROUGHT, HEAVY RAINFALL
Abstract

An important question posed by potential future shifts in climate relates to possible shifts in heavy rainfall events (intensity and/or frequency) used to design hydraulic structures. Heavy rain events were defined as those producing amounts having average recurrence intervals of two years or longer for a specific storm period at a given location. Estimates of such heavy rainfall shifts in the humid continental climate of the midwest were derived by using spatial and temporal analogs. Comparisons in areas of relatively warm, wet conditions were made with those having measurably cooler, drier average conditions. The spatial-temporal analogs provided comparative differences in precipitation and temperature similar to the magnitude of changes obtained from GCM estimates. Spatial analogs/analyses indicated 10 to 15 percent increases in the frequency distribution of rain events having recurrence intervals of 5 to 50 years. Two periods of notably drier and warmer conditions during the past 90 years revealed 5 to 15 percent decreases in the number of 2- to 10-year heavy rain events. The suppression percentages showed a strong tendency to increase with increasing recurrence interval from 2 to 10 years.

Citation Key1136
Access
Community Notes

"We used temporal and regional analogs drawn from the past 100 years as a means to estimate possible shifts in extreme rain events, an approach used by others to investigate possible effects of climate change on water resources (Glantz, 1989)"