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Adaptation Indicators Table

This page is part of the project: Great Lakes Climate Ensemble

The goal of this table is to record specific climate variables, indices, and/or thresholds that were used in climate adaptation work throughout the Great Lakes region.

Possible topics include: Lake Levels, Human Health, Agriculture, Water Resources, Urban Adaptation, Tribal, Ecosystem, etc...

Metric

Definition

Reference

Topic

Lake Evaporation

High lake evaporation (0.4-0.6 inches per day) requires three factors: 1) a large temperature difference between water and air (warm water and cold air), 2) low relative humidity, 3) high wind speed.

Lenters, J. D., J. B. Anderton, P. Blanken, C. Spence, and A. E. Suyker, 2013: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Great Lakes Evaporation. In: 2011 Project Reports. D. Brown, D. Bidwell, and L. Briley, eds. Available from the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) Center: http://glisaclimate.org/media/GLISA_Lake_Evaporation.pdf Lake Levels
Lake Evaporation High ice cover were usually followed by cooler summer water temperatures and lower evaporation rates. Lenters, J. D., J. B. Anderton, P. Blanken, C. Spence, and A. E. Suyker, 2013: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Great Lakes Evaporation. In: 2011 Project Reports. D. Brown, D. Bidwell, and L. Briley, eds. Available from the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) Center:http://glisaclimate.org/media/GLISA_Lake_Evaporation.pdf Lake Levels
Physical controls on lake evaporation Most of the energy for evaporation comes from solar radiation, but the primary solar input occurs roughly five months prior to the annual peak in evaporation. Lenters, J. D., J. B. Anderton, P. Blanken, C. Spence, and A. E. Suyker, 2013: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Great Lakes Evaporation. In: 2011 Project Reports. D. Brown, D. Bidwell, and L. Briley, eds. Available from the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) Center:http://glisaclimate.org/media/GLISA_Lake_Evaporation.pdf Lake Levels
Spatial variability of lake evaporation Highest evaporation rates tend to occur in the nearshore regions of Lake Superior during September and October, particularly along the southern shore.This switches to offshore regions by January and February, when ice cover begins to limit evaporation in nearshore regions. Lenters, J. D., J. B. Anderton, P. Blanken, C. Spence, and A. E. Suyker, 2013: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Great Lakes Evaporation. In: 2011 Project Reports. D. Brown, D. Bidwell, and L. Briley, eds. Available from the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) Center:http://glisaclimate.org/media/GLISA_Lake_Evaporation.pdf Lake Levels
Temporal variability of lake evaporation The annual peak in evaporation is found to occur during the months of October, December, and January. Lenters, J. D., J. B. Anderton, P. Blanken, C. Spence, and A. E. Suyker, 2013: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Great Lakes Evaporation. In: 2011 Project Reports. D. Brown, D. Bidwell, and L. Briley, eds. Available from the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) Center:http://glisaclimate.org/media/GLISA_Lake_Evaporation.pdf Lake Levels
The recruitment to the lake whitefish fishery In their current habitat space, increased water temperature, increased wind speed, and decreased ice cover are projected to inhibit the success of recruitment to the lake white fish fishery Lynch, A.J., W.W. Taylor, 2013. Designing a Decision Support System for Harvest Management of Great Lakes Lake Whitefish in a Changing Climate.  In:  GLISA Project Reports. D. Brown, D. Bidwell, and L. Briley, eds. Available from the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) Center. Fishery
Thermal habitat volume for lake whitefish The warming trends associated with predicted climate change could increase suitable thermal habitat volume for lake whitefish Lynch, A.J., W.W. Taylor, 2013. Designing a Decision Support System for Harvest Management of Great Lakes Lake Whitefish in a Changing Climate.  In:  GLISA Project Reports. D. Brown, D. Bidwell, and L. Briley, eds. Available from the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) Center. Fishery
The recruitment to the lake whitefish fishery The positive relationship between spring temperatures and recruitment with climate change suggests the potential for increased lake whitefish production in the Great Lakes, if habitat is not limiting and sufficient food resources are available when the larvae hatch.  However, the negative relationship between fall temperatures, ice cover, and recruitment may inhibit egg survival and, consequently, lake whitefish production. Lynch, A.J., W.W. Taylor, 2013. Designing a Decision Support System for Harvest Management of Great Lakes Lake Whitefish in a Changing Climate.  In:  GLISA Project Reports. D. Brown, D. Bidwell, and L. Briley, eds. Available from the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) Center. Fishery
Useful climate change information for the winter sports industry average maximum winter temperatures; timing of natural snowfall; and, average minimum winter temperatures. Nicholls, S., B. Amelung, 2013. Attitudes Towards Climate Change: Attitudes Towards and Observations Regarding Climate Variability and Change:  Evidence from Michigan’s Downhill Ski Sector. In: GLISA Project Reports. D. Brown, D. Bidwell, and L. Briley, eds. Available from the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) Center. Ski area operation
Heat waves The heat waves equivalent to the one that killed over 700 people in Chicago in 1995 are projected to occur about once every three years in the Midwest under the lower emissions scenario, and nearly three times a year under the higher emissions scenario Olabisi,L.S., R. Levine, L. Cameron, M. Beaulac, R. Wahl, and S. Blythe. 2012: A Modeling Framework for Informing Decision Maker Response to Extreme Heat Events in Michigan Under Climate Change. In: 2011Project Reports. D. Brown, D. Bidwell, and L. Briley, eds. Available from the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA)  Center. Extreme heat events
Heat events The duration of heat over a number of days, and in particular the elevation of minimum nighttime temperatures without a recuperative period can push the vulnerable into a health crisis. Adverse health effects include heatstroke, heat illness, and exacerbation of chronic conditions such as asthma and cardiovascular disease Olabisi,L.S., R. Levine, L. Cameron, M. Beaulac, R. Wahl, and S. Blythe. 2012: A Modeling Framework for Informing Decision Maker Response to Extreme Heat Events in Michigan Under Climate Change. In: 2011Project Reports. D. Brown, D. Bidwell, and L. Briley, eds. Available from the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA)  Center. Health
“1995-like” heat wave The 1995 Chicago heat wave. This is characterized by at least 7 consecutive days with maximum daily temperatures greater than 32 °C (90 °F) and nighttime minimum temperatures greater than 21 °C (70 °F), with daytime maximum temperatures over 38 °C (100 °F) and nighttime temperatures that remained above 27 °C (80 °F) for at least two of those days Hayhoe, K., Sheridan, S., Kalkstein, L., & Greene, S. (2010). Climate change, heat waves, and mortality projections for Chicago. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 36, 65-73. Heat wave and health
Humidex

A measure that attempts to combine temperature and humidity. Humidex(degC)=Mean temperature(degC) + 0.5555(6.11E-10)

E=exp[5417.753((1/271.16)-(1/dew-point temperature(degC)))]

where deg K is degrees kelvin. The Humidex was designed to describe the feeling of hot and humid weather for an average person.

A.G.Barnett, S.Tong, A.C.A.Clements(2010) What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality? Environmental Research 110 (2010) 604–611 Heat wave and health
Apparent temperature An index of human discomfort due to the combined effect of heat and humidity, was calculated using the formula of Apparent temperature(degF) = -2.653 + 0.994 * mean temperature(degF) + 0.0153 *[dew-point temperature(degF)],  The aim of apparent temperature is to combine the effects of heat and cold with humidity. A rise in apparent temperature in the warm season was associated with increased all-cause mortality in adults

Lin, S., Luo, M., Walker, R. J., Liu, X., Hwang, S.-A., & Chinery, R.

(2009). Extreme High Temperatures and Hospital Admissions for

Respiratory and Cardiovascular Diseases. Epidemiology, 20(5),

738-746.

Heat wave and health
Daily maximum and minimum temperature. The extremes of temperature will exert the most physiological pressure and so could be the most important predictor of mortality. Maximum temperature may also be a good measure of exposure because it often occurs in the middle of the day, which could coincide with a peak time for outdoor activity. Conversely, daily minimum temperatures are likely to occur at night when most people are in bed. A.G.Barnett, S.Tong, A.C.A.Clements(2010) What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality? Environmental Research 110 (2010) 604–611 Heat wave and health
Urban heat island As a result of increased temperatures within the urban locales, the UHI may affect the number of hot days as well as the duration of heat waves, potentially increasing the risk of mortality from heat stress, including respiratory failure and circulatory system failure from heart attack or stroke in urban areas.

Tan, J., Zheng, Y., Tang, X., Guo, C., Li, L., Song, G., et al. (2010).

The urban heat island and its impact on heat waves and human

health in Shanghai. Int J Biometeorol, 54(1), 75-84.

Heat wave and health
Offensive air mass” Human health is affected by the interactions from a much larger suite of meteorological conditions that constitute an “offensive air mass” For Chicago, two “oppressive” air mass types, Dry Tropical (DT) and Moist Tropical Plus (MT+), have been primarily associated with increased mortality in the past. In particular, the MT+ air mass is characterized by hot and humid conditions with high overnight temperatures.  Hayhoe, K., Sheridan, S., Kalkstein, L., & Greene, S. (2010). Climate change, heat waves, and mortality projections for Chicago. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 36, 65-73. Heat wave and health
Heat-related mortality The derived algorithms relating heat-related mortality in Chicago to meteorological and seasonal factors,based on historical observed weather conditions and mortality rates, are as follows:If day is classified as DT or MT+,MORT=-26.74+4.62DIS+0.777AT,if day is classified as another air mass,MORT=-7.8+0.266AT,where MORT is the mortality in 100000 people,AT is the apparent temperature(C), and DIS is the day's position in a sequence of consecutive days characterized by DT or MT+ air masses.The latter suggests that the longer the offensive air mass persists, the deadlier it becomes. Hayhoe, K., Sheridan, S., Kalkstein, L., & Greene, S. (2010). Climate change, heat waves, and mortality projections for Chicago. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 36, 65-73. Heat wave and health
Southerly winds The moderating effect of the lake was minimized by the southerly winds prevailing during the heat wave, which virtually eliminated the cooling effect of lake breezes. Hayhoe, K., Sheridan, S., Kalkstein, L., & Greene, S. (2010). Climate change, heat waves, and mortality projections for Chicago. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 36, 65-73. Heat wave and health
Ground level ozone

A warmer climate generally means more ground level ozone (a component of smog), which can cause respiratory problems, especially for those who are young, old, or have asthma or allergies

United States Global Change Research Program (2009). Regional

Climate Impacts: Midwest. Washington: USGCRP.

Heat wave and health
Heatstroke The most common cause of death and the most acute illness directly attributable to heat is heatstroke, a condition characterized by a body temperature of 105.0°F (40.6°C) or higher and altered mental status

The Potential Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Temperature-Related

Morbidity and Mortality in the United States

Heat wave and health
Heat-mortality a meta-analysis of recent mortality studies, finding a 2–5 % increase in all-cause mortality for 1 °C increase during heat exposures E. P. Petkova & H. Morita & P. L. Kinney (2014) Health Impacts of Heat in a Changing Climate: How Can Emerging Science Inform Urban Adaptation Planning? Curr Epidemiol Rep (2014) 1:67–74 DOI 10.1007/s40471-014-0009-1 Heat wave and health
Heat-mortality The US epidemiological studies show that a 10 °C increase in temperature on the same summer day increased cardiovascular mortality by 1.17 %, and there was an 8.3 % difference comparing the highest level of ozone to the lowest among the 95 cities in the National Morbidity and Mortality Study Global climate change and public health Heat wave and health
Hot days above xx(30, 35,38,40,45) deg C Number of days with Tmax above xx(30,35,38,40,45) deg C https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/downscaling-2013/VariablesIndices Heat wave and health
r10mm Heavy Precipitation Days. Number of days with precipitation >=10mm https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/downscaling-2013/VariablesIndices precipitation
r20mm Very Heavy Precipitation Days. Number of days with precipitation >=20mm https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/downscaling-2013/VariablesIndices precipitation
rx1day Max 1-Day Precipitation. Highest precipitation amount in a 1-day period https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/downscaling-2013/VariablesIndices precipitation
rx5day 5-day maximum precipitation accumulation https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/downscaling-2013/VariablesIndices precipitation
SDII Simple daily intensity index[mm/day] https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/downscaling-2013/VariablesIndices precipitation
Rkeqj

Rkeqj=P*(EFjike*IMjike)

Rkeqj is the risk index for each infrastructure element of

type k in DA q.EFjike is the economic factor for each climate scenario, j, impact category, i, infrastructure type, k, and each infrastructure element, e IMjike is the impact multiplier.

Elisabeth A. Bowering , Angela M. Peck & Slobodan P. Simonovic (2013): A flood risk assessment to municipal infrastructure due to changing climate part I: methodology, Urban Water Journal, DOI:10.1080/1573062X.2012.758293 Flood risk
Rjks

Rjks =Eks* Skj

Rjks risk score for the receptor j related to an impact k and a scenario s; Ek,s exposure score related to the impact k in scenario s, according to specific exposure functions; Sk,j susceptibility of the receptor j to the impact k.

S. Pasini , S. Torresan , J. Rizzi , A. Zabeo , A. Critto , A. Marcomini, Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: A spatially resolved regional risk assessment,Science of the Total Environment 440 (2012) 219–235

Risk assessment
Influence of the warmer and shorter winter. (wet snow)

1. High density, wet snow does not drift as much as light snow so highways and roads might be less impaired by blizzards.

2. Structural loading of roofs and buildings is likely to increase from large snowfalls of heavy, wet snow.

3. A higher frequency of snowmelt during the winter from warmer average temperatures, coupled with an increased frequency of winter precipitation in the form of rain will likely further increase surface and basement flood risks

4. Rain falling on snow or on frozen ground will also have a higher runoff coefficient than rain falling on bare ground in warmer seasons, further complicating the assessment of winter flood risks.

5. Deicing salt applications might need to be increased during wet snowfalls,  simply because of the dilution effects of denser and wetter snow.

6. An increase in snowstorm intensity, coupled with a greater frequency of heavy, wet snowfalls, will also likely lead to more frequent power blackouts and more extensive tree damage during the winter season.

Jaffe, M., M.E. Woloszyn, 2013. Development of an Indicator Suite and Winter Adaptation Measures for the Chicago Climate Action Plan. In: 2011 Project Reports. D. Brown, D. Bidwell, and L. Briley, eds. Available from the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) Center. Winter adaptation
Impacts of temperature on highway operations and infrastructure.

1.Increases in very hot days and heat waves (higher high temperatures, increased duration of heat waves)

• Increased thermal expansion of bridge joints and paved surfaces, causing possible degradation.
• Concerns regarding pavement integrity, traffic related rutting and migration of liquid asphalt, greater need for maintenance of roads and pavement.
• Limits on periods of construction activity, and more night time work.
• Vehicle overheating and tire degradation.
• Maintenance and construction costs for roads and bridges are likely to increase as temperatures increase.
• Stress on bridge integrity due to temperature expansion of concrete joints, steel, asphalt, protective cladding, coats and sealants.
• Asphalt degradation, resulting in possible short term loss of public access or increased congestion of sections of road and highway during repair and replacement .

2.Decreases in very cold days

• Regional changes in snow and ice removal costs and environmental impacts from salt and chemical use.
• Fewer cold-related restrictions for maintenance workers.

3.Later onset of seasonal freeze and earlier onset of seasonal thaw

• Changes in seasonal weight restrictions.
• Changes in seasonal fuel requirements.
• Improved mobility and safety associated with a reduction in winter weather.
• Longer construction season in colder areas.
• Freeze-thaw conditions increasing frost heaves and potholes restricting loads on roads.

The federal highway administration’s climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.  December 2012

Transportation
Impacts of precipitation on highway operations and infrastructure

1.Increases in intense
precipitation events

• Increases in weather-related delays and traffic disruptions.
• Increased flooding of evacuation routes.
• Increases in flooding of roadways and tunnels.
• Increases in road washout, landslides and mudslides that damage roadways.
• Drainage systems likely to be overloaded more frequently and severely, causing backups and street flooding.
• Areas where flooding is already common will face more frequent and severe problems.
• If soil moisture levels become too high, structural integrity of roads, bridges, and tunnels (especially where they are already under stress) could be compromised.
• Standing water will have adverse effects on road base.
• Increased peak streamflow could affect the sizing requirement for bridges and culverts.

2.Increases in drought conditions

• Increased susceptibility to wildfires, causing road closures due to fire threat or reduced visibility.
• Increased risk of mudslides in areas deforested by wildfires.

3.Changes in seasonal precipitation and river flow patterns

• Benefits for safety and reduced interruptions if frozen precipitation shifts to rainfall.
• Increased risk of floods, landslides, slow failures and damage to roads if precipitation changes from snow to rain in winter and spring thaws.
• Increased variation in wet/dry spells and decrease in available moisture may cause road foundations to degrade.
• Degradation, failure and replacement of road structures due to increases in ground and foundation movement, shrinkage and changes in groundwater.
• Increased maintenance and replacement costs of road infrastructure.
• Short term loss of public access or increased congestion to sections of road and highway.

The federal highway administration’s climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.  December 2012 Transportation
Impacts of storm intensity on highway operations and infrastructure

1.Increases in storm intensity
(leading to higher storm surges,
stronger winds, flooding)

• More frequent and potentially more extensive emergency evacuations.
• More debris on roads, interrupting travel and shipping.
• Bridges, signs, overhead cables and other tall structures are at risk from increased wind speeds.
• Increased threat to stability of bridge decks.
• Decreased expected life-time of highways exposed to storm surge.
• Risk of immediate flooding, damage caused by force of water and secondary damage caused by collisions with debris.
• Erosion of coastal highways and land supporting coastal infrastructure.
• Damage to signs, lighting fixtures, and supports
• Reduced drainage rate of low-lying land after rainfall and flooding events.

The federal highway administration’s climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.  December 2012 Transportation
Impacts of sea level rise on operations and highway infrastructure

1.Rising sea levels (leading to higher storm surge, increased salinity of rivers and estuaries, flooding)

• Amplifies effect of storm surge, causing more frequent interruptions to coastal and low-lying roadway travel due to storm surges.
• Amplifies effect of storm surge, causing more severe storm surges requiring evacuation.
• Permanent inundation of roads or low lying feeder roads in coastal areas. Reduces route options/redundancy.
• More frequent or severe flooding of underground tunnels and low-lying infrastructure.
• As the sea level rises, the coastline will change and highways that were not previously at risk to storm surge and wave damage may be exposed in the future.
• Erosion of road base and bridge supports.
• Highway embankments at risk of subsidence/heave.
• Bridge scour.
• Reduced clearance under bridges.
• Increased maintenance and replacement costs of tunnel infrastructure.

The federal highway administration’s climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.  December 2012 Transportation