Recent water level changes across Earth's largest lake system and implications for future variability." Journal of Great Lakes Research. 45.1 (2019): 1-3.
"Recent accelerated warming of the Laurentian Great Lakes: Physical drivers." Limnology and Oceanography. 61 (2016): 1762-1786.
"Regional Climate Adaptation Indicators." (2016).
2016_Chen_Z.pdf (1.71 MB)
"
"
A record-breaking low ice cover over the Great Lakes during winter 2011/2012: combined effects of a strong positive NAO and La Niña." Climate Dynamics. 4418181138157475011765115162633038118164592991028213177831911123228987761141082927XXXVIII24271815293412610926322411913625.5-63–4C03002494C1123442254 (2015): 1187-1213.
"Regional modeling of surface-atmosphere interactions and their impact on Great Lakes hydroclimate." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 120.3 (2015): 1044-1064.
" "Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather." NATURE GEOSCIENCE. 7 (2014): 627-637.
"Red Lake Climate Summary." (2014).
Red_Lake_Tribe_Climate_Summary.pdf (8.37 MB)
"
A regime shift in Lake Superior ice cover, evaporation, and water temperature following the warm El Niño winter of 1997–1998." Limnology and Oceanography. 59 (2014): 1889-1898.
" "Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 110.16 (2013): 6448-6452.
"Regional Climate and Variability of NASA MERRA and Recent Reanalyses: U.S. Summertime Precipitation and Temperature." Journal of Applied Meteorology and ClimatologyJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 52.8 (2013): 1939-1951.
" "The Role of Ice Cover in Heavy Lake-Effect Snowstorms over the Great Lakes Basin as Simulated by RegCM4." Monthly Weather Review. 141 (2013): 148-165.
"The recent shift in early summer Arctic atmospheric circulation." Geophysical Research Letters. 39 (2012).
Overland_Francis_Shift_Arctic_Circulation_GRL_2012.pdf (1.07 MB)
"
Regional climate downscaling: What's the point?" 93.5 (2012).
"The role of winter phenology in shaping the ecology of freshwater fish and their sensitivities to climate change." Aquatic Sciences. 74.4 (2012): 637-657.
"Reasoning about climate uncertainty." Climatic Change. 108 (2011).
"Reclamation Secure Water Act Report." (2011).
"Regional Climate and Hydrologic Change in the Northern US Rockies and Pacific Northwest: Internally Consistent Projections of Future Climate for Resource Management. Draft report." (2011): 111 pp.
Graph from CIG on Missouri changes 1.png (275.11 KB)
Graph from CIG on Missouri changes 2.png (480.17 KB)
"

The representative concentration pathways: an overview." Climatic Change. 109.1-2 (2011): 5-31.
"Revisiting projected shifts in the climate envelopes of North American trees using updated general circulation models." GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY. 17 (2011): 2720-2730.
"